How to spot a statistical problem: advice for a non-statistical reviewer

Statistical analyses presented in general medical journals are becoming increasingly sophisticated. BMC Medicine relies on subject reviewers to indicate when a statistical review is required. We consider this policy and provide guidance on when to recommend a manuscript for statistical evaluation. Indicators for statistical review include insufficient detail in methods or results, some common statistical issues and interpretation not based on the presented evidence. Reviewers are required to ensure that the manuscript is methodologically sound and clearly written. Within that context, they are expected to provide constructive feedback and opinion on the statistical design, analysis, presentation and interpretation. If reviewers lack the appropriate background to positively confirm the appropriateness of any of the manuscript’s statistical aspects, they are encouraged to recommend it for expert statistical review

Simpson's paradox and calculation of number needed to treat from meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Calculation of numbers needed to treat (NNT) is more complex from meta-analysis than from single trials. Treating the data as if it all came from one trial may lead to misleading results when the trial arms are imbalanced. DISCUSSION: An example is shown from a published Cochrane review in which the benefit of nursing intervention for smoking cessation is shown by formal meta-analysis of the individual trial results. However if these patients were added together as if they all came from one trial the direction of the effect appears to be reversed (due to Simpson's paradox). Whilst NNT from meta-analysis can be calculated from pooled Risk Differences, this is unlikely to be a stable method unless the event rates in the control groups are very similar. Since in practice event rates vary considerably, the use a relative measure, such as Odds Ratio or Relative Risk is advocated. These can be applied to different levels of baseline risk to generate a risk specific NNT for the treatment. SUMMARY: The method used to calculate NNT from meta-analysis should be clearly stated, and adding the patients from separate trials as if they all came from one trial should be avoided

IMPLEmenting a clinical practice guideline for acute low back pain evidence-based manageMENT in general practice (IMPLEMENT) : cluster randomised controlled trial study protocol

Background: Evidence generated from reliable research is not frequently implemented into clinical practice. Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines are a potential vehicle to achieve this. A recent systematic review of implementation strategies of guideline dissemination concluded that there was a lack of evidence regarding effective strategies to promote the uptake of guidelines. Recommendations from this review, and other studies, have suggested the use of interventions that are theoretically based because these may be more effective than those that are not. An evidencebased clinical practice guideline for the management of acute low back pain was recently developed in Australia. This provides an opportunity to develop and test a theory-based implementation intervention for a condition which is common, has a high burden, and for which there is an evidence-practice gap in the primary care setting. Aim: This study aims to test the effectiveness of a theory-based intervention for implementing a clinical practice guideline for acute low back pain in general practice in Victoria, Australia. Specifically, our primary objectives are to establish if the intervention is effective in reducing the percentage of patients who are referred for a plain x-ray, and improving mean level of disability for patients three months post-consultation. Methods/Design: This study protocol describes the details of a cluster randomised controlled trial. Ninety-two general practices (clusters), which include at least one consenting general practitioner, will be randomised to an intervention or control arm using restricted randomisation. Patients aged 18 years or older who visit a participating practitioner for acute non-specific low back pain of less than three months duration will be eligible for inclusion. An average of twenty-five patients per general practice will be recruited, providing a total of 2,300 patient participants. General practitioners in the control arm will receive access to the guideline using the existing dissemination strategy. Practitioners in the intervention arm will be invited to participate in facilitated face-to-face workshops that have been underpinned by behavioural theory. Investigators (not involved in the delivery of the intervention), patients, outcome assessors and the study statistician will be blinded to group allocation. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN012606000098538 (date registered 14/03/2006).The trial is funded by the NHMRC by way of a Primary Health Care Project Grant (334060). JF has 50% of her time funded by the Chief Scientist Office3/2006). of the Scottish Government Health Directorate and 50% by the University of Aberdeen. PK is supported by a NHMRC Health Professional Fellowship (384366) and RB by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (334010). JG holds a Canada Research Chair in Health Knowledge Transfer and Uptake. All other authors are funded by their own institutions

Dealing with Missing Outcomes: Lessons from a Randomized Trial of a Prenatal Intervention to Prevent Early Childhood Caries

Severe early childhood caries (S-ECC) affects 17% of 2-3 year old children in South Australia impacting on their general health and well-being. S-ECC is largely preventable by providing mothers with anticipatory guidance. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the most decisive way to test this, but that approach suffers from near inevitable loss to follow-up that occurs with preventative strategies and distant outcome assessment

First trimester placental endothelial cells from pregnancies with abnormal uterine artery Doppler are more sensitive to apoptotic stimuli.

Failure of the placental capillary network to develop normally is associated with early onset fetal growth restriction (FGR) and pre-eclampsia (PE). Although the symptoms are observed at term, the problem begins in the first trimester. However, investigations at this clinically relevant time are hindered by difficulties in identifying earlystage pregnancies that are at risk of developing FGR/PE. Using uterine artery Doppler ultrasound in the first trimester as a proxy measure of poor placentation, we have identified pregnancies at increased risk of developing early onset FGR/PE. Placental endothelial cells (PEC) isolated from pregnancies at increased risk of developing FGR/PE grew more slowly and their basal rate of apoptosis was significantly higher than that seen in the normal group. The pro-apoptotic stimulus, TNFα, induced apoptosis in cells from both groups but this was significantly greater in the high risk group. TNF receptor expression was unaffected. Inhibition of nitric oxide (NO) production significantly increased the sensitivity of cells from the normal pregnancies to TNFα but not in the high risk group establishing a functional role for NO in this system. In conclusion, first trimester PEC from pregnancies at increased risk of developing early onset FGR/PE were inherently more sensitive to apoptotic stimuli and this was functionally linked to the synthesis of NO. This may contribute to the poor placental vascular development seen in on going pregnancies

High prevalence of potential biases threatens the interpretation of trials in patients with chronic disease

BACKGROUND: The complexity of chronic diseases is a challenge for investigators conducting randomized trials. The causes for this include the often difficult control for confounding, the selection of outcomes from many potentially important outcomes, the risk of missing data with long follow-up and the detection of heterogeneity of treatment effects. Our aim was to assess such aspects of trial design and analysis for four prevalent chronic diseases. METHODS: We included 161 randomized trials on drug and non-drug treatments for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, stroke and heart failure, which were included in current Cochrane reviews. We assessed whether these trials defined a single outcome or several primary outcomes, statistically compared baseline characteristics to assess comparability of treatment groups, reported on between-group comparisons, and we also assessed how they handled missing data and whether appropriate methods for subgroups effects were used. RESULTS: We found that only 21% of all chronic disease trials had a single primary outcome, whereas 33% reported one or more primary outcomes. Two of the fifty-one trials that tested for statistical significance of baseline characteristics adjusted the comparison for a characteristic that was significantly different. Of the 161 trials, 10% reported a within-group comparison only; 17% (n = 28) of trials reported how missing data were handled (50% (n = 14) carried forward last values, 27% (n = 8) performed a complete case analysis, 13% (n = 4) used a fixed value imputation and 10% (n = 3) used more advanced methods); and 27% of trials performed a subgroup analysis but only 23% of them (n = 10) reported an interaction test. Drug trials, trials published after wide adoption of the CONSORT (CONsolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) statement (2001 or later) and trials in journals with higher impact factors were more likely to report on some of these aspects of trial design and analysis. CONCLUSION: Our survey showed that an alarmingly large proportion of chronic disease trials do not define a primary outcome, do not use appropriate methods for subgroup analyses, or use naïve methods to handle missing data, if at all. As a consequence, biases are likely to be introduced in many trials on widely prescribed treatments for patients with chronic disease

Effects and feasibility of a standardised orientation and mobility training in using an identification cane for older adults with low vision: design of a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Orientation and mobility training (O&M-training) in using an identification cane, also called symbol cane, is provided to people with low vision to facilitate independent participation in the community. In The Netherlands this training is mainly practice-based because a standardised and validly evaluated O&M-training in using the identification cane is lacking. Recently a standardised O&M-training in using the identification cane was developed. This training consists of two face-to-face sessions and one telephone session during which, in addition to usual care, the client's needs regarding mobility are prioritised, and cognitive restructuring techniques, action planning and contracting are applied to facilitate the use of the cane. This paper presents the design of a randomised controlled trial aimed to evaluate this standardised O&M-training in using the identification cane in older adults with low vision.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>A parallel group randomised controlled trial was designed to compare the standardised O&M-training with usual care, i.e. the O&M-training commonly provided by the mobility trainer. Community-dwelling older people who ask for support at a rehabilitation centre for people with visual impairment and who are likely to receive an O&M-training in using the identification cane are included in the trial (N = 190). The primary outcomes of the effect evaluation are ADL self care and visual functioning with respect to distance activities and mobility. Secondary outcomes include quality of life, feelings of anxiety, symptoms of depression, fear of falling, and falls history. Data for the effect evaluation are collected by means of telephone interviews at baseline, and at 5 and 17 weeks after the start of the O&M-training. In addition to an effect evaluation, a process evaluation to study the feasibility of the O&M-training is carried out.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The screening procedure for eligible participants started in November 2007 and will continue until October 2009. Preliminary findings regarding the evaluation are expected in the course of 2010. If the standardised O&M-training is more effective than the current O&M-training or, in case of equal effectiveness, is considered more feasible, the training will be embedded in the Dutch national instruction for mobility trainers.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00946062</p

Improving early childhood care and development, HIV testing, treatment and support, and nutrition in Mokhotlong, Lesotho: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial

Background Since 1990, the lives of 48 million children under the age of 5 have been saved because of increased investments in reducing child mortality. However, despite these unprecedented gains, more than 200 million children in low and middle income countries (LMIC) cannot meet their developmental potential due to poverty, poor health and nutrition, and lack of necessary stimulation and care. Lesotho has high levels of poverty, HIV and malnutrition, all of which affect child development outcomes. There is a unique opportunity to address these complex issues through the widespread network of informal preschools in rural villages in the country, which provide a setting for inclusive, integrated Early Childhood Care and Development (ECCD), HIV and nutrition interventions. Methods We are conducting a cluster randomised controlled trial in Mokhotlong district, Lesotho, to evaluate a newly developed community-based intervention programme to integrate HIV testing and treatment services, ECCD, and nutrition education for caregivers with children aged 1-5 years living in rural villages. Caregivers and their children are randomly assigned by village to intervention or control condition. We select, train, and supervise community health workers recruited to implement the intervention, which consists of nine group-based sessions with caregivers and children over 12 weeks (eight weekly sessions, and a ninth top up session one month later), followed by a locally hosted community health outreach day event. Group-based sessions focus on using early dialogic booksharing to promote cognitive development and caregiver-child interaction, health-related messages, including motivation for HIV-testing and treatment uptake for young children, and locally appropriate nutrition education. All children aged 1-5 years and their primary caregivers living in study villages are eligible for participation. Caregivers and their children will be interviewed and assessed at baseline, immediately after completion of the intervention, and 12 months post intervention. Discussion This study provides a unique opportunity to assess the potential of an integrated early childhood development intervention to prevent or mitigate developmental delays in children living in a context of extreme poverty and high HIV rates in rural Lesotho. This paper presents the intervention content and research protocol for the study

One step forward, one step sideways? Expanding research capacity for neglected diseases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is general agreement, including from the pharmaceutical industry, that current market based methods of generating research into the development of pharmaceutical products that are relevant for developing countries do not work. This conclusion is relevant not just for the most neglected diseases such as leishmaniasis but even for global diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Stimulating research will mean overcoming barriers such as patent thickets, poor coordination of research activities, exclusive licensing of new technologies by universities and the structural problems that inhibit conducting appropriate clinical trials in developing countries. In addition, it is necessary to ensure that the priorities for research reflect the needs of developing countries and not just donors. This article will explore each of these issues and then look at three emerging approaches to stimulating research -paying for innovation, priority review sales or vouchers and public-private partnerships, - and evaluate their strengths and weaknesses.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>All of the stakeholders agree that there is a pressing need for a major expansion in the level of R&D. Whatever that new model turns out to be, it will have to deal with the 5 barriers outlined in this paper. Finally, none of the three proposals considered here for expanding research is free from major limitations.</p

Genome-Wide SNP-genotyping array to study the evolution of the human pathogen Vibrio vulnificus Biotype 3

Vibrio vulnificus is an aquatic bacterium and an important human pathogen. Strains Of V. vulnificus are classified into three different biotypes. The newly emerged biotype 3 has been found to be clonal and restricted to Israel. In the family Vibrionaceae , horizontal gene transfer is the main mechanism responsible for the emergence of new pathogen groups. To better understand the evolution of the bacterium, and in particular to trace the evolution of biotype 3, we performed genome-wide SNP genotyping of 254 clinical and environmental V. vulnificus isolates with worldwide distribution recovered over a 30-year period, representing all phylogeny groups. A custom single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array implemented on the Illumina GoldenGate platform was developed based on 570 SNPs randomly distributed throughout the genome. In general, the genotyping results divided the V. vulnificus species into three main phylogenetic lineages and an additional subgroup, clade B, consisting of environmental and clinical isolates from Israel. Data analysis suggested that 69% of biotype 3 SNPs are similar to SNPs from clade B, indicating that biotype 3 and clade B have a common ancestor. The rest of the biotype 3 SNPs were scattered along the biotype 3 genome, probably representing multiple chromosomal segments that may have been horizontally inserted into the clade B recipient core genome from other phylogroups or bacterial species sharing the same ecological niche. Results emphasize the continuous evolution of V. vulnificus and support the emergence of new pathogenic groups within this species as a recurrent phenomenon. Our findings contribute to a broader understanding of the evolution of this human pathogen